Your Extremely Efficient Tour de France Hommes 2025 Briefing
From Pogačar vs. Vingegaard to stage traps and team tactics, here’s your expert crash course before the flag drops.
Hello cycling fans,
That flutter in your chest? The restless scrolling? Rethinking your fantasy team picks? It can only mean one thing: it’s Tour week.
The Tour de France Hommes 2025 starts this Saturday, and if it already feels like everyone’s holding their breath, it’s because this edition might break us all. From the trap-filled opening week to the cruel summit of the Col de la Loze, this race has no soft spots. Not for the riders. Not for the fans.
This newsletter is your extremely efficient and unusually honest guide to what really matters:
How the first week could trigger an early GC battle
Why Pogačar vs. Vingegaard might finally live up to the hype
Which stages could blow the GC apart
And why Stage 21 will piss off sprinters and delight chaos lovers
Plus: a bird’s-eye preview of the route (with a fun drawing included!), a selection of news stories to read, and a how-to-watch breakdown, so you can follow the chaos from wherever you are. No fluff. No filler.
Enjoy the read. And if you’ve got thoughts, hopes, or hot takes, don’t hold back—drop them in the comments. I love a hot take.
–Rosael
Your Extremely Efficient Tour de France Hommes 2025 Briefing
🗓 July 5–27
📍 Start: Lille | Finish: Paris Champs-Élysées
The 2025 Tour de France is big, one hundred percent French, and merciless. For the first time in five years, the race stays entirely within France—no Italian detours, no Spanish sun. In fact, over the past 40 years, the Tour has stayed solely on French soil only three times—the most recent being 2020. This year, it’s 3,320 kilometers of trap-filled roads, relentless elevation, and crosswind-exposed coastlines. But will we get the battle we’re hoping for?
I really hope so. [But if the Tour flops? No worries—we’ve got the Giro d’Italia Donne starting this Sunday, July 6. (I’ll have thoughts in your inbox soon.)]
This edition of the Tour is predicted to be a GC battle from day one to day twenty-one, with little to no downtime. The first week is loaded with narrow roads, explosive finishes, and constant echelon risk, while the final week strings together enough altitude gain to make even the purest climbers beg for mercy.
Sprinters won’t find much comfort either. While seven sprint-ish stages exist on paper, most are shaped by terrain that burns all their matches—crosswinds-prone coastlines, uphill run-ins, and early chaos. Even Stage 21, once sacred ground for the fast men, has been revamped into a puncheur’s dream, and a sprinter’s nightmare (for those who make it that far).
And then there’s the climbing: 52,000 meters of it. The back half of the race is stacked with summit finishes and altitude torture tests—Stage 18 alone includes 5,800m of climbing. Riders keep using one word to describe it: cruel.
By the time they reach Paris on July 27, the real question won’t be who survived, but whether we finally got the full-throttle Pogi vs. Jonas showdown we’ve been waiting for.
The Real Fight Starts Early
Forget waiting for the Alps. The Tour kicks off with a gauntlet of GC traps across Normandy and Brittany: narrow farm roads, sharp punchy climbs, and coastlines exposed to crosswinds. From Stage 1 onward, there’s nowhere to hide.
The opening block echoes the brutality of the 2018 Tour, when GC favorites were either cooked or cracked before they ever reached the mountains. That was by design back then, and again now. With no 1st category or HC climbs until Stage 12, we could see some truly weird GC standings by the end of week one. Think sprinters and strong time trialists hanging on simply because the real mountains haven’t arrived yet. And depending on how aggressive UAE gets, the true fight could be over before it even begins.
As EF Education–EasyPost DS Tom Southam put it: “You come out of that first ten days already far from the GC—or totally cooked.”
This year, it might be worse. Several team directors and analysts are calling this the most stressful first week in years, not because of summit finishes, but because of the mental toll it will take on leaders trying to stay upright, well-positioned, and inside the right echelons.
Stage 6 and Stage 7’s climb to Mûr-de-Bretagne are ripe for ambushes. Riders like Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) are expected to go after time bonuses on these ramps, which forces Jonas Vingegaard (Visma–Lease a Bike) to follow, burning matches early. Even the “sprint stages” may require GC teams to ride like it’s a one-day classic.
Teams like Visma–Lease a Bike are built for this type of first act. With a deep bench of classics engines like Wout van Aert, Edoardo Affini, Tiesj Benoot, Victor Campenaerts, and Matteo Jorgenson, they could weaponize the wind and blow the GC wide open before the road picks up.
And after UAE’s high-profile tactical misfire at the Giro, some rivals smell blood. Visma and others may have uncovered a soft spot: if Pogačar has an off-day and UAE fails to respond with clarity or control, a smarter team with better timing could take a huge swing—and land it. In a Tour this relentless, one bad decision could cost the whole race.
Prepare to Be Underwhelmed
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step) may well take yellow after the Stage 5 time trial in Caen, but in my view, he’s unlikely to keep it. The same goes for Primož Roglič (Red Bull–BORA–hansgrohe). This Tour looks too brutal. It’ll take more than strong legs; you’ll need luck, composure, and serious support. And I just don’t see either rider enduring three weeks of relentless pressure, especially with BORA bringing tired Giro legs and Quick-Step lacking high-mountain support.
Yes, I know some of you won’t love this take, but bookmark it anyway.
The Mountains Come Late—and Hit Hard
One of the quieter quirks of this year’s route? It takes until Stage 12 to see a single 1st category or Haute Catégorie (HC) climb. That’s the latest debut of serious altitude in over a decade. The result is a Tour that front-loads stress and tactics, then hits the mountains all at once in the second half. Riders will either arrive at Hautacam fresh or already fried.
The second time trial of the race is short, just 11km, but don’t let the distance fool you. This is a mountain time trial to Peyragudes, finishing on a brutal climb that averages nearly 8% with a final ramp up to the altiport that’s become infamous in recent editions.
This is not a test of aero gains or flatland power. It’s a specialist’s nightmare and a climber’s time to shine. Riders like Evenepoel, who thrive on flatter efforts, will need to limit their losses, while Pogačar and Vingegaard must judge their pacing with surgical precision.
It also comes midway through a three-day Pyrenean block, bookended by summit finishes on Hautacam (Stage 12) and Superbagnères (Stage 14). With over 10,000 meters of climbing across these three stages, it’s a stretch where the GC could explode, or quietly tilt toward a winner. Any time lost here might be impossible to recover, especially with Loze looming in week three.
The High Road to Paris
Stage 18 is pure sadism: 5,800 meters of climbing, including the Col de la Madeleine, Col du Glandon, and the heinous final ramps of the Col de la Loze, where gradients hit 18–20%. Riders say it’s the hardest climb they’ve ever done, and history shows Pogačar suffers there. In both 2020 and 2023, he cracked on this very mountain. This might be his Achilles’ heel.
Then there’s Stage 21—no longer a ceremonial sprinter’s parade. As seen on the Paris Olympics course, a 1km climb at 6% has been added to the Champs-Élysées circuit, which will be ridden three times, with the final ascent just 7km from the finish. It’s been called “stupid” by riders, and it will absolutely shake up the final day.
🔮 Predictions & Wildcards
Who goes into Yellow early? Evenepoel after Stage 5. But don’t be surprised if Pogačar goes for the jersey between Stages 1 and 7.
Who will fade? Roglič and Evenepoel, again. Roglič’s consistency and Bora’s Giro-fatigue are major liabilities; Remco lacks the mountain team support to go the distance.
Top GC podium contenders:
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates): The man to beat. If he stays upright, he wins.
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-LaB): Likely to reach peak form, but it may not be enough this time.
João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates): Quietly climbing into podium contention behind Pogi.
Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe): Bora’s true GC hope, not Roglič. His climbing form suggests a breakout top-5 is possible.
GC Sleepers:
Ben O’Connor (Jayco–AlUla): Opportunist who knows how to exploit chaos and terrain.
Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers): Could quietly ride into the top 10 with INEOS flying under the radar.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl–Trek): Strong prep despite illness setbacks, and a TT + climbing combo that suits this Tour.
Stagehunters to watch:
Kevin Vauquelin (Arkéa–B&B Hotels): Stage 6 is written in the stars for him as it is his hometown.
Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor): The first ten days are made for his style if he’s back to form.
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck): Dangerous on punchy finishes and the final stage.
Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious): Master of sneaky breakaway wins.
Green jersey wildcard:
Biniam Girmay (Intermarché–Wanty): Won three stages and the green jersey in 2024. He’s back and dangerous.
Vingegaard’s hopes? If he’s bluffing about form, he’ll fall behind fast. If not, we may get the battle royale we’ve been dreaming of.
What We’re All Hoping For:
A full-on Pogi vs. Jonas slugfest. Something worthy of Hinault vs. LeMond, or dare we say, Armstrong vs. Ullrich. Will Vingegaard level up in time? Will Pogačar finally meet his match?
Another dream outcome? That someone else crashes the party entirely. Whether it’s João Almeida riding into legend, Lipowitz shocking the establishment, or Ben O’Connor seizing a chaotic moment, fans are hungry for a surprise twist—proof that the Tour can still deliver the unexpected.
It all starts this Saturday, July 5, in Lille. By the time they roll into Paris—on tired legs and maybe broken dreams—the Tour may feel more like a cruel fever dream than a bike race.
📰 Notable Headlines & News to Know
Wout van Aert Back in Training After Illness Scare: The Belgian has resumed training after a stomach illness disrupted his final TdF preparations, marking yet another comeback in a season already filled with setbacks. (CyclingNews)
Richard Carapaz Will Not Start Tour: The 32-year-old developed a gastrointestinal infection while training at home in Ecuador. (CyclingNews)
U.S. Presence Grows: Quinn Simmons and Will Barta are back in the mix. EF and Lidl-Trek are pushing the stars-and-stripes narrative. (Velo)
Netflix Season 3 Hits Different: CyclingWeekly breaks down surprises from Unchained, hinting at how it may shape public perceptions mid-race.
The TdF Hommes Comprehensive Team-By-Team Guide: 184 riders across 23 teams, with each outfit approaching the race with different goals and ambitions. (CyclingNews)
Kit Parade Continues: Visma, UAE, Red Bull–Bora, and Specialized are all flaunting new kits or collaborations. It’s not just a race—it’s fashion week. (CyclingWeekly)
Will It Be a Two-Horse Race? Escape Collective ponders whether anyone besides Pogi or Jonas has a real shot. You already know our take.
Tour Gets Anti-Doping Overhaul: ITA will implement a comprehensive, intelligence-driven anti-doping program to uphold the integrity of the race. (ITA)
50 Years on the Champs—A Finish Line Like No Other: The Tour celebrates 50 years of its iconic Champs-Élysées finale, honoring legendary moments from LeMond to Cavendish while debuting a new Montmartre twist for 2025. (The Guardian)
How Van der Poel Balances Fame and Focus: MvdP is one of the greatest cyclists of this generation, perhaps of any. With his success has come fame, attention, and stardom, but for the Dutchman, it’s all about the love of the game. (Rouleur)
Who Are the TV Commentators for the Tour? Anchors, announcers, and analysts for ITV, TNT, NBC (CyclingWeekly)
Châteauroux to Become “Cavendish City” for a Day: Here, Mark Cavendish took three of his record-breaking 35 Tour de France stage wins. (CyclingNews)
📺 How to Watch the Tour de France Hommes 2025
🇺🇸 United States: NBC and Peacock - Plans start at $7.99/month (with ads)
🇨🇦 Canada: FloBikes ($39.99/month) – includes full road calendar
🇬🇧 United Kingdom: ITV4 + ITVX (free, final year before paywall era)
Also on TNT Sports / Discovery+ (£30.99/month)🌍 Watching Abroad? Use a VPN to stream your home country’s coverage
Pro tip: Also helps with dodgy hotel Wi-Fi.
Original analysis, enjoyed it
Great article and overview. FWIW my prediction is that Pog and JVV keep things quite tight and tidy for first 12 days knowing full well that this TDF is won (or lost) on the big days at the back end of the tour. This will mean an opportunity for an early maillot jaune incumbent (Evenepoel, Thomas - would love it!) but an understanding that by the end Pog will ride away to victory