🔮 Predictions for the Giro d’Italia’s Crucial Middle Week 🚴‍♂️⏳

Gravel roads, time trials, and GC tension define the next seven stages of the Giro. Ayuso is closing in, Roglič is under pressure, and the fight for pink is far from settled.

May 16, 2025

Hello cycling fans,

Tomorrow’s Stage 8 will mark the second “week” of the Giro d’Italia, where the road starts asking tougher questions, even if the biggest mountains are still to come. The next seven stages will bring everything from gravel chaos to a decisive time trial, and the GC race is already reshuffling with Jai Hindley out and teams adjusting on the fly.

Itzulia Women also kicked off today—a three-day WorldTour race in the Basque Country packed with talent and punchy climbs. Demi Vollering’s back in new colors, and SD Worx will try to hold their grip on the race if they can. Unfortunately, I haven’t found a reliable way to stream it from the U.S. or Canada, but you can catch daily recaps on CyclingNews and other cycling sites.

Scroll down for stage-by-stage Giro predictions and a few thoughts on how this next stretch could shape the race for pink, OR stop reading now if you don’t want Stage 7 spoilers.

Enjoy,
–Rosael

Giro d’Italia Stage-by-Stage Predictions: Week 2

Friday’s Stage 7 brought the fireworks we were waiting for. Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) launched a searing attack in the final 550 meters to take the win atop Tagliacozzo, leading teammate Isaac Del Toro in a commanding one-two finish. Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) showed a flash of his old self with a gutsy third place, while Primož Roglič (Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe) hung on for fourth and reclaimed the maglia rosa as Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) dropped out of GC contention.

With no summit finishes on tap in the next seven stages, the fight for pink will take on a different shape: gravel roads, punchy climbs, tactical chaos, and a long time trial that could expose weaknesses. UAE now looks like the strongest team in the race, and Roglič, now without Jai Hindley, is feeling the pressure. Week 2 is about adaptation: to lost lieutenants, new alliances, and a general classification that just got a lot more interesting.

Giro d’Italia 2025 Results by FirstCycling

Jersey Standings

🌸 Maglia Rosa (GC leader): Primož Roglič (Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe)
💜 Maglia Ciclamino (Points): Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
🔵 Maglia Azzurra (KOM): Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana Team)
⚪ Maglia Bianca (Best Young Rider): Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates XRG)

Stage 8 – Saturday, May 17: Giulianova – Castelraimondo, 153km

Prediction: Breakaway day, pure and simple.
In this lumpy stage, with UAE having just gone 1-2 on Stage 7’s summit finish, they’ll likely step back and let the break have its day. Expect no GC movement unless someone misses a split. As for the composition of the breakaway, we could see riders like Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost), Davide Formolo (Movistar), Lawrence Warbasse (Tudor), and Carlos Verona (Lidl-Trek) take part. Don’t rule out big names like Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) or Tom Pidcock (Q36.5) slipping into the move either—especially if they sense an open door and want to salvage something from the week. This is a stage for the opportunists.

Stage 9 – Sunday, May 18: Gubbio – Siena, 181km (Strade Bianche stage)

Prediction: Ayuso looks to strike again on the gravel.
Five sectors of white roads and the punchy finale up Via Santa Caterina mean this stage is tailor-made for chaos and opportunity. Pidcock is the obvious pick for the win if he’s free to chase stages, but don’t be surprised if Ayuso makes another statement before the second rest day.

If UAE turns the screws, it could also put pressure on Roglič’s weakened Red Bull–Bora squad. Antonio Tiberi and Edoardo Zambanini (Bahrain Victorious) should be at ease on this terrain, and Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) could quietly move up if things explode late.

Stage 10 – Tuesday, May 20: Lucca – Pisa ITT, 28.6km

Prediction: Roglič tightens his grip, Ayuso defends his progress.
After Ayuso’s stunning win on Stage 7, the young Spaniard sits just four seconds off the maglia rosa and looks sharper than ever. But he knows it, Stage 10 is where he’ll likely lose time. This long, flat time trial is Roglič’s territory, and he’ll be looking to extend his lead after riding defensively in the mountains.
Ayuso said he was motivated to “recover the time lost in the TT,” but this won’t be easy, especially with Del Toro, his teammate, just five seconds behind him and also likely to concede time here. Michael Storer (Tudor) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) could lose ground, while Brandon McNulty (UAE) and Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers) may move up the GC thanks to their strength against the clock.

Stage 11 – Wednesday, May 21: Viareggio – Castelnovo ne' Monti, 185km

Prediction: A trap for tired legs.
With a major climb early and a jagged finale, this stage could see a GC outsider or a savvy breakaway artist steal glory. Storer might try something here. If the Ineos duo of Bernal and Arensman want to shake things up, this is the moment. More likely, the GC group watches each other while the break rides free.

Stage 12 – Thursday, May 22: Modena – Viadana, 172km

Prediction: Classic sprint showdown.
Back to the fast men, and Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) will be eyeing another win. Olav Kooij (Visma-Lease a Bike), Pedersen, and Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step) are all in the mix. GC teams will focus solely on staying out of trouble, especially if pink is tightly contested.

Stage 13 – Friday, May 23: Rovigo – Vicenza, 180km

Prediction: Pidcock or Bilbao for the punchy finale.
The final 60 km are littered with sharp climbs and the 1 km ramp of Monte Berico to finish. Pidcock is tailor-made for this, but Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) or Zambanini could also thrive. Expect GC teams to stay sharp on the short climbs. Ayuso may go hunting for bonus seconds again, especially if the gap to Roglič is tight.

Stage 14 – Saturday, May 24: Treviso – Nova Gorica, 186km (Slovenian border)

Prediction: Slovenia welcomes its hero, OR a brave breakaway.
With three border crossings and a finish in Slovenia’s Nova Gorica, Roglič will be the center of attention. If UAE is in pink, they may defend it. If Roglič is behind, he’ll be tempted to do something dramatic, especially in front of a home crowd. Riders like Damiano Caruso (Bahrain) or Richard Carapaz (EF) may also see this as a golden opportunity to take a stage. Either way, emotion will run high.

That’s the lay of the land as we head into a week defined not by towering climbs, but by tension, tactics, and timing. Whether Ayuso keeps pushing or Roglič reasserts control, the next few stages will shape the run into the final mountainous week in subtle but significant ways.

Rosael's Cycling Substack

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